Almost all of the U.S. presidential elections come with surprises. The 2016 campaign, however, has provided a seemingly endless supply of shock and confusion. Since after nomination of Donald Trump as a presidential candidate, he has been in news for all good and bad reasons. Now as per the Economist Intelligence Unit, his winning is considered as one of the top 10 risks faced by the world. It is as giant as a global risk as terrorism.
In the latest version of Global Risk assessment, the Economist Intelligence Unit which uses a scale of 1 to 25 had ranked victory for the Republican front-runner at 12 on the index. It is the same level of risk as the rising threat of jihadi terrorism is destabilizing the global economy. However, the current top threat is a Chinese economic “hard landing” which has been rated 20. Justifying the threat level, the EIU highlighted the tycoon’s alienation towards China as well as his comments on Islamist extremism. The research has mentioned that his proposal to stop Muslims from entering the United States would be a ‘potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups’.
It also raised the spectre of a trade war under a Trump presidency and pointed out that his policies ‘tend to be prone to constant revision’. If the reports of BBC are to be believed, the research firm is of the view that his reign can disrupt the global economy. Simultaneously he will also heighten political and security risks in the US. Trump is rated as riskier than Britain leaving the European Union or an armed clash in the South China Sea. However, it does not expect Mr Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton who it sees as “his most likely Democratic contender”.
In future the events that can be seen more dangerous includes China encountering a ‘hard landing’ or sharp economic slowdown and Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria preceding a new ‘cold war’. Economic Intelligence Unit in its global risk assessment, which looks at the impact and probability, said that till date Mr Trump has given very few details of his policies – and these tend to be prone to constant revision. He has been exceptionally hostile towards free trade, including notably NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) and has repeatedly labelled China as a ‘currency manipulator’.
It warned that his strong language directed towards Mexico and China in particular ‘could escalate rapidly into a trade war’. Mr Trump has called for a ‘big big wall’ to be built on the US-Mexican border, paid for by Mexico, to keep its illegal immigrants and drug dealers out of the United States.